Prioritize investigation hypotheses by confidence after bootstrap

docs/investigation-scheduling-v1.md

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+# Confidence-prioritized investigation scheduling
+
+The controller gives every active, eligible hypothesis one bootstrap turn in
+numeric ID order. After that it chooses by qualitative confidence:
+strongly_supported > supported > plausible > unassessed > weak > weakened.
+Equal levels use numeric hypothesis ID (H1 before H2 before H10), not rotation.
+These ranks are ordering values, not probabilities or a new model-owned budget.
+
+Selection is recomputed between turns. A strengthening hypothesis can continue;
+a weakened hypothesis yields to a higher-ranked alternative without losing its
+remaining budget or evidence. Initial turns generally issue queries: their results
+are semantically assessed on a subsequent turn, so the bootstrap does not claim
+that all hypotheses are already evaluated after three calls.
+
+Existing eligibility checks, positive action costs, rewards, iteration safeguards,
+terminal dispositions and final pending-result assessments remain in force. An
+interrupted/pending active turn resumes as before; it is not preempted or rewritten.
+Existing cases adopt the scheduler at their next selection boundary. Archived
+states, contexts and model request hashes are not changed. The historical cursor
+field is retained for file compatibility but no longer determines selection.
+
+## Completion remains separate from selection
+
+The model may finish its selected hypothesis with remaining credit, or reject it.
+Supported confidence requires stored evidence. This does not itself globally
+finish the case. The controller transitions to BUILDING_DIAGNOSIS after all
+hypotheses have terminal accounts and pending results have been handled, whether
+through model finish/reject, budget exhaustion or controller limits. No rule
+requires spending every allocated unit. A weak hypothesis is deprioritized, not
+automatically rejected just because another ranks higher.
+
+The final diagnosis evaluates all alternatives, root-cause evidence and adequacy
+of a countercheck. Only an accepted supported diagnosis can proceed to a coding
+change request; inconclusive cases go to review. An automatic global early finish
+on a single high-confidence declaration is not introduced by this scheduler.

src/viano_bug_analysis/analysis/investigation_scheduler.py

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+"""Deterministic scheduling, independent of model calls and budget accounting."""
+
+CONFIDENCE_ORDER = {
+    'strongly_supported': 5,
+    'supported': 4,
+    'plausible': 3,
+    'unassessed': 2,
+    'weak': 1,
+    'weakened': 0,
+}
+
+
+def priority_order(hypotheses):
+    """One bootstrap turn each, then confidence with numeric ID tie-breaking.
+
+    Eligibility, pending-action checks and iteration/budget limits remain the
+    controller's responsibility. An interrupted active turn is never rescheduled.
+    These ranks order qualitative levels; they are not confidence probabilities.
+    """
+    ids = sorted(hypotheses, key=lambda hid:int(hid[1:]))
+    positions = {hid:index for index,hid in enumerate(ids)}
+    def rank(hid):
+        hypothesis = hypotheses[hid]
+        return (0 if hypothesis['iterations']==0 else 1,
+                0 if hypothesis['iterations']==0 else -CONFIDENCE_ORDER[hypothesis['confidence']],
+                int(hid[1:]))
+    return [(positions[hid],hid) for hid in sorted(ids,key=rank)]

src/viano_bug_analysis/analysis/investigator.py

@@ -239,8 +239,9 @@ class Investigator:
             snapshot=budget.snapshot(case_id,package_id)
             ids=sorted(state["hypotheses"],key=lambda value:int(value[1:]))
             selected=None
-            for offset in range(len(ids)):
+            from .investigation_scheduler import priority_order
-                pos=(state["cursor"]+offset)%len(ids);hid=ids[pos];h=state["hypotheses"][hid];account=snapshot.state["accounts"][hid]
+            for pos,hid in priority_order(state['hypotheses']):
+                h=state["hypotheses"][hid];account=snapshot.state["accounts"][hid]
                 if h["disposition"]!="active":continue
                 if any(a["status"]!="settled" for a in account["actions"].values()) and h["last_record_ref"] is None:
                     raise InvestigationError("INVESTIGATION_UNOWNED_PENDING_ACTION")

tests/test_investigation_scheduler.py

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+import copy
+
+from viano_bug_analysis.analysis.investigation_scheduler import priority_order
+
+
+def hypothesis(confidence='unassessed',iterations=1):
+    return {'confidence':confidence,'iterations':iterations}
+
+
+def order(hypotheses):
+    return [hid for _,hid in priority_order(hypotheses)]
+
+
+def test_bootstrap_turns_precede_already_strong_hypotheses():
+    states={'H1':hypothesis('strongly_supported'),'H2':hypothesis(iterations=0),'H3':hypothesis(iterations=0)}
+    assert order(states)==['H2','H3','H1']
+    states['H2']['iterations']=1
+    assert order(states)==['H3','H1','H2']
+
+
+def test_confidence_rises_and_falls_without_changing_budget_or_state():
+    states={'H1':hypothesis('plausible'),'H2':hypothesis('supported'),'H3':hypothesis('weak')}
+    before=copy.deepcopy(states)
+    assert order(states)==['H2','H1','H3']
+    assert states==before
+    states['H2']['confidence']='weakened'
+    assert order(states)==['H1','H3','H2']
+    states['H3']['confidence']='strongly_supported'
+    assert order(states)==['H3','H1','H2']
+
+
+def test_equal_confidence_uses_numeric_hypothesis_id_not_rotation_or_string_sort():
+    states={hid:hypothesis('supported') for hid in ['H10','H5','H3','H2','H1']}
+    assert order(states)==['H1','H2','H3','H5','H10']
+    assert dict(priority_order(states))[0]=='H1'
+
+
+def test_unassessed_alternative_is_preferred_over_weakened_candidate():
+    assert order({'H1':hypothesis('weak'),'H2':hypothesis(),'H3':hypothesis('weakened')})==['H2','H1','H3']

tests/test_investigator.py

@@ -270,3 +270,27 @@ def test_provider_configuration_error_blocks_without_abandoning_hypotheses(tool_
 @pytest.mark.parametrize("name",["investigation-output","investigation-state","investigation-context"])
 def test_loop_schemas_valid(name):
     Draft202012Validator.check_schema(json.loads(files("viano_bug_analysis.schemas").joinpath(name+'-v1.schema.json').read_text()))
+
+
+def test_confidence_scheduler_keeps_growing_candidate_then_switches_after_weakening(tool_case):
+    def change(reply,context):
+        hid=context['selected_hypothesis']
+        turns=sum(c['selected_hypothesis']==hid for c in adapter.contexts)
+        if hid=='H1' and turns in (2,3):
+            reply['update']['confidence']='supported' if turns==2 else 'weakened'
+            reply['next']={'kind':'tool','operation':'source.read_context',
+                'arguments':{'source_ref':'tool/code.cpp','start_line':1,'end_line':2}}
+    adapter=LoopAdapter(change)
+    loop=Investigator(tool_case[0],gateway(adapter))
+    first=run(loop,steps=4)
+    assert first.status=='YIELDED'
+    assert [c['selected_hypothesis'] for c in adapter.contexts]==['H1','H2','H3','H1']
+    # Resume the persisted confidence state; neither cursor nor a restart forces rotation.
+    result=run(Investigator(tool_case[0],gateway(adapter)),steps=2)
+    assert [c['selected_hypothesis'] for c in adapter.contexts]==['H1','H2','H3','H1','H1','H2']
+    saved=state(result)
+    assert saved['hypotheses']['H1']['confidence']=='weakened'
+    assert saved['hypotheses']['H1']['disposition']=='active'
+    account=BudgetManager(tool_case[0]).snapshot(*CASE).state['accounts']['H1']
+    assert account['remaining']>0 and account['status']=='investigating'
+    assert PackageValidator().validate(result.package).valid